Updated June 24, 2015.
Last month’s dramatic NDP win in Alberta led to much speculation (at least among those interested in such issues) as to what this means for the oil and gas industry, for climate change and for the battles over controversial pipelines. That speculation even showed up last Thursday in at the climate talks in Bonn, when U.S. diplomats asked Canada whether Alberta’s plans to develop new climate rules (announced Tuesday) would change our national target (As an aside, South Africa, at the same session, pointed out that Canada’s target for reducing Greenhouse gas emissions is actually a net increase relative to the international base-line of 1990).
In general environmentalists have been optimistic that the election of Premier Notley will help their climate goals, while the oil and gas industry, and its supporters, have been concerned. But the situation is quite complex, and as an organization that has worked for many years to keep the BC coast free from tankers, and BC’s sensitive ecosystems free from bitumen pipeline spills, we believe that the NDP’s win brings both opportunities and challenges for those concerned about pipelines and tankers and climate change.
Alberta’s political context
Despite warnings from the oil and gas industry of an NDP government, Premier Notley is constrained by the province she leads. Granted, no one expected an orange sweep of the province (she herself apparently realized she might be Premier only a week before the election), so anything is possible in Alberta, but nonetheless, it seems clear that Notley knows that she leads an oil-rich province, where many jobs and many taxes come from the oil and gas industry. This is seen clearly in her party’s re-assuring overtures to the oil and gas industry on being elected (and in reciprocal statements from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers that it can work with the NDP government).
As Chris Hall, CBC National Affairs Editor, has put it:
This is still an oil producing province. [Notley] can’t just step all over that. I think she’s going to have to scale back any intention to try to suddenly turn it into refining, rather than shipping. What she may have an advantage of is presenting a more environmentally friendly face, particularly to the outside world. If she plays her cards right, she could actually increase the odds of getting a pipeline built.
This is not to suggest that the NDP does not have real and important changes in mind for the Alberta economy and the oil and gas sector in particular, including diversifying an overly fossil-fuel dependent economy, looking for better royalties, etc. We may event expect better environmental enforcement of oil sands operations (despite the fact that the NDP platform made no mention of this issue).
Alberta climate policy v. Pipelines
We may well expect more action on climate change from the Alberta NDP, including more interprovincial cooperation on climate change and stronger efforts to reign in the carbon intensity. Certainly the NDP promise to phase out coal fired electrical power is a positive climate promise, and last Tuesday’s announcement confirming that new climate rules are in the mix is a positive one.
However, addressing climate change requires some fairly dramatic changes, and here we run up against political realities. That’s true, of course, in other provinces as well (witness BC’s refusal to increase it’s much lauded carbon tax, despite the reality that our GHG emissions are increasing). But it’s doubly true in a province that is so dependent on the oil and gas industry.
Oil sands oil is among the most energy intensive in the world, and to have a realistic chance of achieving the GHG reduction targets that scientists tell us we need, means that oil sands production must be severely constrained. A recent article published in the scientific journal, Nature, warned that, based on its carbon intensity, virtually all of Alberta’s bitumen should remain in the ground.
And that’s a reality, an inconvenient truth that Albertans cannot afford to acknowledge. Premier Notley has been clear that expansion of pipelines (and therefore the oil sands) continues to be high on Alberta’s agenda. In her election victory speech, she explicitly tied her pro-environment, national approach to building the energy sector and getting bitumen to market.
I’m looking forward to partnering with all of Canada’s premiers on many, many issues, including the need for a national approach to the environment in Canada. And to work with my premier colleagues, as well, to build Canada’s energy sector so that we build bridges and we open markets instead of having a black eye. That is what we’re going to do.
There are reasons to hope for progress on climate change and that the rapid expansion of oil sands development may be checked a bit. These developments may indeed help Canada achieve its climate change goal (which, let’s be clear, is a scientifically indefensible one). Some of these positives include:
- NDP promise to review royalties paid by the industry may increase the price of bitumen slightly, or introduce other issues related to pipelines;
- Development of the new climate rules, as well as better cooperation between the premiers (including BC’s premier) on climate change generally, perhaps leading to a carbon price or similar measures;
- An increased willingness to address First Nations, such as the Beaver Lake Cree, concerns about the impacts of unregulated oil sands development (including a promise to adopt the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous People); and
- In the long-term, the government’s goal of diversifying the economy may help break the strangle-hold of the fossil fuel companies on the politics of the province.
However, for the time being it appears that Alberta’s priorities will continue to include expanding oil sands development and getting bitumen to market (although it is possible that low oil prices may frustrate that priority).
That being said, not all pipelines are equal in Notley’s Alberta. She does not support Enbridge or Keystone XL, but feels that the Kinder Morgan and Energy East Pipelines are viable, giving us some idea of where she’s going to put her energy. So what does that mean for pipeline activists in BC?
Enbridge Pipelines and Tankers Project
Of the pipeline companies looking to operate in BC, it is Enbridge that is the clearest loser in the Alberta Election. Premier-elect Notley has been clear that she doesn’t support its Northern Gateway pipeline:
I think there's just too much environmental sensitivity there and I think there's genuine concerns by the indigenous communities, but I think from an environmental point of view, it's a problem and I think B.C.'s made itself very clear on that.
Some have suggested that the pipeline is dead as a result of the NDP win. But while there is no doubt that Premier Notley’s lack of support for the pipeline is an important nail in the coffin of Northern Gateway, the pipeline company itself is continuing to push ahead. Some commentators have pointed out that she has not actually promised to work to kill the project – just indicated that she would not work to move it forward:
“It doesn't mean Gateway is totally dead. It just changes how Enbridge can play it out with less support at the provincial level,” [said Wenran Jiang, a former senior energy advisor to the Alberta government]. “We have the National Energy Board's approval. I believe the federal government is still strongly behind Gateway. I would say that given the very neutral, moderate nature of Rachel Notley herself as displayed in this election campaign, she may well say the government will not exhaust its resources to support Northern Gateway, but if it does go ahead it's all good for Alberta.
This, of course, ignores the reality that Enbridge was already having trouble finding long-term customers for its pipeline, due to uncertainty about whether it will be built. Nonetheless, there is still a lot of work to be done, although we can be encouraged by the new Alberta government’s position on the Enbridge Pipelines and Tankers Project.
Kinder Morgan
However, as noted, Premier Notley is not opposed to Kinder Morgan, saying that “Kinder Morgan continues to be worthy of discussion, because the route there has been established, and has been fairly effective…”
Of course, about 1/3 of the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion is proposed to take new routes, and there are also “genuine concerns” from the Tsleil-Waututh First Nation, who are challenging the Kinder Morgan Pipeline and Tankers Project in court, as well as the many First Nations that have signed the Save the Fraser Declaration. Not to mention the many non-native communities that would be impacted by the expanded pipeline and the resulting increase in tanker traffic (see, for example, the recent Mayor’s Statement on Kinder Morgan National Energy Board Process).
So many of the reasons that Premier Notley says that she is opposed to Enbridge’s Pipelines and Tankers Project apply with equal force to the Kinder Morgan project.
We will need to see whether Premier Notley actually works to push the Kinder Morgan pipeline, or whether she takes more of a hands-off approach. But the perception that the Alberta government is addressing climate change and managing the oil sands better than their predecessors could be used by Kinder Morgan to shore up support for its pipeline – even if little on the ground changes. As noted above, Premier Notley could actually increase the possibility of a pipeline being built.
Best wishes to Premier Notley
Premier Notley has a very difficult balancing act ahead of her. It’s the same balancing act we see everywhere: on the one hand, there is what is necessary for the survival of our planet. On the other is what is politically and economically feasible for Alberta in the short-term.
We wish her the best, and we trust that she will do her best. But we’re not going to assume that the election of an NDP government, or the development of new climate rules for Alberta, remarkable as both of these developments are, solve Alberta's contribution to climate change or halt all of the pipeline problems here in BC. Rather, we will continue to provide legal support to the British Columbians who are opposed to the Enbridge and Kinder Morgan Pipelines and Tankers projects.
By Andrew Gage,
Staff Counsel
Photo of Rachel Notley by Dave Cournoyer, used under a Creative Commons Licence.